Wednesday, June 4, 2014

What the ECB should do tomorrow - Key data to follow to trade EU assets

Tomorrow Draghi will speak at the monthly ECB press conference. He promised that he shall use all possible tools to try to defeat deflation in the Eurozone. While there is rumors of negative interest rate and sovereign bonds buying we think that the silver bullet should be something much larger.
Indeed, deflation forces are increasing across the board in the Eurozone :

 

Lending is anemic at best in the core of Eurozone while negative in the periphery :



To my view, the obvious first medication in the current structural and very large problem is:

Very large quantitative easing with large monthly buying of at least EUR 50bn/month of PRIVATE SECTORS LOANS = corporates loans and asset backed loans. It will restore some velocity in private sector loans, reduce banks balance sheet and reduce yield for loans in the periphery and finally initiate some inflation despite the lack of spending (both on the private sector and government side). While this might appears  a"big move" philosophically for the ECB, it will be a small move relative to the deflation/lack of spending in the Eurozone - this is the least the ECB could..

If nothing is done on that front tomorrow, EU markets might not like it and Drgahi might loose some credibility, so it is expected at least some indication of something.
Inflation in the Eurozone is becoming quickly the key risk datapoint to watch for the second part of the year as it will - at one point - be the trigger for QE. It is only a question of time.

Obviously, if tomorrow Draghi offer us a large QE (set up ideally to last until inflation reach a certain level) it will be extremely bullish for equity markets globally.


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