Monday, December 14, 2015

HYG close to capitulation

HYG price action points to short term capitulation - look for bounce from these level and re-test close to recent lows to offer asymmetrical entry point - risk/reward

Macro backdrop could support risk assets in the short term following FED meeting: following significant credit spread widening in the US, if Yellen increases the target ranger from 0-0.25 to 0.25-0.5 she will most probably be quite dovish - should be supportive of a Christmas rally especially in the current price action environment.

Once the market rebounds, it will be interesting and key to assess how the "target range" system which differs from the post-crisis "target rate" works - indeed, with USD 2.5tr in reserve, the FED might be forced to set up RRA with commercial banks in order to sock up liquidity and manage accordingly the range - hopefully it will not be a problem...