Thursday, June 26, 2014

Output Gap, Nominal Rates, Inflation Expectations after banking crisis : 10 years to normalize...on average

An interesting research produced by GS that analyzed the data of banking crisis in 19 countries back to 1800's.  Most macro indicators on average normalized after 8-10 years  - but if we takes an average of output gap estimates in the US (currently around 4%), we have then more of 3 SD scenario and 10 year yields then could take this time 15 years to normalize! Short bonds anyone ?...;)