Thursday, July 4, 2013

Central Banks Bull - ECB and BOE decided to offer a strong summer to investors

Today both BOE and ECB announced strong commitment to their current monetary policies.

ECB: "Rates will remain accommodating for extended period of time"

BOE: " the implied rise in the expected future path of bank rate was not warranted by the recent developments in the domestic economy"

(...)

Both statements are (at least to me) relatively surprising in light of a) the recent improvement of the most volatile segment of both the UK (PMI at 2 years high) and EU (Periphery countries + France PMI at 6 months high) economies and b) historical hawkish tone of ECB.

Anyway, these are most welcome comments from central banks! 

It changes significantly the outlook for EU and UK equities for the short-term: as growth is improving slowly from low levels (i.e without any large change and/or surprise), marginal changes in financial conditions are the key risk factors in this low growth environment.
Today we ve just being offered another large change/boost (at least in commitment + EUR going down contributing to it) in EU/UK financial conditions.

More importantly, global equities market price action is stabilizing (downtrend force receding) from a sharp two months correction which erased around 10% gains in UK/EU. Investors are therefore now much better positioned to buy at these levels - as usual : price action inertia backed by marginal change in key contextual macro data.

I therefore started to significantly increase the net equity exposure from 0% to 40% (with Ibex first) of the portfolio + long again Italian bonds. I plan to add to UK equities and EU equities in a couple of days as the up trend develops/confirm itself and decelerate a bit. It will allow to deploy capital with higher probability of success.

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